Prediction Markets news

August 15, 2026

11:10 Prediction Markets

Washington judge orders Kalshi to block most event contracts in the state

Washington judge orders Kalshi to geofence most event contracts in the state A Washington judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering event contracts tied to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science, and “mentions” to people in the state, rejecting the platform’s argument that federal commodities law overrides Washington gambling law. Kalshi must add initial IP and residency geofencing by Aug. 19 and a GeoComply multi-source system by Sept. 2; commodities, climate, economics and finance contracts are exempt.

August 11, 2026

21:45 Prediction Markets

CFTC tells Kalshi to keep New York prediction markets open during state court fight

CFTC orders Kalshi to keep New York markets open amid state lawsuit The CFTC said Kalshi can continue operating its prediction markets in New York despite a lawsuit filed by Attorney General Letitia James at the end of July seeking to shut the platform. Using emergency authority, the agency said federal law governs prediction markets as swaps and argued New York’s gaming laws do not apply to interstate financial exchanges; court rulings on moving the case to federal court are still pending.

August 7, 2026

15:15 Prediction Markets

Polymarket shifts short-term crypto markets to TWAP after settlement manipulation concerns

Polymarket switches short-dated crypto markets to TWAP settlement Polymarket has replaced single-price settlement snapshots with time-weighted average prices for short-dated crypto contracts after trader complaints and a study linked settlement windows to likely manipulation. The platform said five-minute markets will use a 30-second average and 15-minute and four-hour markets a 60-second average via Chainlink Data Streams; researchers said 821 accounts made $8.2 million in likely manipulated windows.

July 30, 2026

21:23 Prediction Markets

Chainalysis says World Cup drove $20B in blockchain prediction market volume

World Cup drove $20B in blockchain prediction markets, Chainalysis says Chainalysis said the World Cup generated $20 billion in blockchain-based prediction market volume and $24 million in FIFA Collect NFT trading, with more than 400,000 wallets placing bets. During the five-week tournament, World Cup markets made up about 63% of all prediction market activity, while fewer than 1% of participating wallets were tied to illicit actors.

07:46 Prediction Markets

Polymarket removes Korean support and reduces Korea market visibility in South Korea

Polymarket drops Korean support and hides Korea markets in South Korea Polymarket has removed Korean from its language menu and stopped prominently showing Korea-focused prediction markets to users in South Korea, while keeping the contracts available globally. The changes come as South Korean regulators review whether the platform amounts to gambling and police investigate local users on gambling allegations; the Korea Communications Standards Commission has not set a timetable for any action, and Polymarket has not explained the move.

July 27, 2026

08:02 Prediction Markets

CFTC renews warning over template event-contract filings by prediction markets

CFTC issues fresh warning on prediction market contract filings The CFTC has again told prediction-market exchanges not to use broad, template-style self-certifications for event contracts, saying each filing must include product-specific terms, settlement methods, data sources and compliance analysis. The July 24 advisory, which stops short of changing the self-certification route or naming any platform, comes just before the July 27 deadline for comments on proposed event-contract rules.

July 21, 2026

06:15 Prediction Markets

Hyperliquid rolls out HIP-4 to open prediction market creation beyond validators

Hyperliquid unveils HIP-4 for permissionless prediction markets Hyperliquid said on July 20 that its HIP-4 upgrade will let qualified deployers launch outcome-based prediction markets using validator-approved on-chain templates, ending validator-only deployment. Deployers must stake 500,000 HYPE for six months, can be slashed for failed settlement or quitting, and start with a 100-outcome limit; settlement quotes will use AQAv2 only. HYPE traded around $60, down about 1% on the day.

04:46 Prediction Markets

Polymarket sends nearly 100 wallets to law enforcement over suspicious trading activity

Polymarket refers nearly 100 wallets to law enforcement Polymarket has sent nearly 100 crypto wallets to law enforcement as it steps up monitoring for possible insider trading, Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar said. A Bloomberg analysis flagged about $200 million in first-half 2026 trades with patterns associated with informed activity, mostly in geopolitical markets. The referrals do not prove wrongdoing or mean charges will follow, but recent U.S. cases tied to Venezuela and Google-linked wagers have intensified scrutiny.

July 19, 2026

22:15 Prediction Markets

France orders ISP block on Polymarket ahead of World Cup final

France orders ISPs to block Polymarket before World Cup final France’s gambling regulator ANJ ordered internet providers on July 16 to block access to Polymarket, calling the platform an illegal gambling service and warning of potential losses and market manipulation. The move comes ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup final between Spain and Argentina, as Polymarket’s tournament-winner market has logged more than $4 billion in cumulative volume; the block stays in place until the platform complies with local rules.

July 17, 2026

21:00 Prediction Markets

Augur relaunches with Lituus dispute layer and live REP migration test

Augur relaunches with Lituus dispute-resolution layer and REP migration test The Lituus Foundation has relaunched Augur with a proposed decentralized settlement layer for disputed prediction-market outcomes, plus a live two-month “Moon Fork” test that requires REP holders to migrate tokens to the version they support. The foundation says the system is designed to resolve contested markets without relying on a company, committee, multisig or governance council, as scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies.

07:45 Prediction Markets

Kalshi Crypto Contract Volume Reaches Record $217.98 Million in a Single Day

Kalshi crypto contracts hit record $217.98M daily volume Kalshi’s crypto event contracts posted a record $217.98 million in daily volume on July 15, up from about $5 million on Jan. 1, a roughly 44x increase in seven months, Artemis data shows. The surge comes even as BTC is down about 30% year to date, with Kalshi now controlling roughly 84% of crypto-prediction volume after taking share from Polymarket.

July 14, 2026

21:46 Prediction Markets

CFTC tells Kalshi not to obey Michigan order to cancel completed user trades

CFTC tells Kalshi to ignore Michigan order to cancel trades The CFTC has ordered prediction-market platform Kalshi not to comply with a Michigan court order requiring it to cancel and refund trades by Michigan users, saying unwinding executed contracts could disrupt markets and undermine contractual certainty. The agency said it will not allow states or courts to pressure registered entities into violating the Commodity Exchange Act, calling such cancellations unprecedented and a risk to market confidence.

06:46 Prediction Markets

Gibraltar Brings In First Dedicated Rulebook for Prediction Markets

Gibraltar launches first dedicated prediction market regime Gibraltar’s Prediction Market Regulations 2026 took effect on July 13, making the territory the first jurisdiction to create a purpose-built rulebook for prediction markets instead of treating them under general gambling law. All event contracts must be approved by the Gambling Authority, and two operators — ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire’s Wire Markets — will fall under the new regime, setting Gibraltar apart as European regulators move to tighten scrutiny of the sector.