Prediction Markets news

October 7, 2026

21:12 Prediction Markets

Polymarket Starts Live Testing of Protocol V2 With pUSD for New Markets

Polymarket starts live testing of Protocol V2 Polymarket has begun live testing Protocol V2, a major rebuild of the smart contracts behind its prediction markets that shifts new markets to a unified exchange architecture and pUSD collateral. Canary testing is set to run through Oct. 30, with Nov. 2 targeted for new markets to move to the updated system, while legacy positions will keep settling on the infrastructure where they were created.

October 6, 2026

05:41 Prediction Markets

Polymarket eyes Nov. 2 rollout for new markets on Protocol V2

Polymarket targets Nov. 2 launch for new markets on Protocol V2 Polymarket has started production canary testing of Protocol V2 and plans to route newly created markets to the new system on Nov. 2. The upgrade replaces its legacy Gnosis CTF architecture with a single ERC-1155 position system, unified pUSD collateral and a modular OracleAggregator that can take outcomes from UMA and Chainlink, while existing CTF markets and positions will stay on separate contracts. Security reviews have been published, and critical bugs remain covered by a $5 million bounty.

October 3, 2026

02:11 Prediction Markets

Ohio Says Kalshi Sports Contracts Violate State Gambling Law After Appeals Court Ruling

Ohio to treat Kalshi sports contracts as illegal gambling Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said the state will enforce gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts after the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals refused to block state action. The court said Kalshi had not shown the contracts fall exclusively under CFTC oversight and that federal law does not preempt Ohio’s gambling rules. State regulators have told Kalshi to stop offering the contracts or get licensed, and separately moved toward a $5 million penalty.

September 30, 2026

15:41 Prediction Markets

CFTC Sends Event-Contract Rules to White House Review

CFTC sends event-contract swap rules to White House review The CFTC has sent two rules to the White House for review that could reshape U.S. prediction markets: one would classify event contracts on platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com and Robinhood as swaps, while another would exclude “casino-style gambling products” from the swap definition. If adopted, the move could strengthen the agency’s claim that these markets fall under federal regulation rather than state gambling law.

September 28, 2026

18:11 Prediction Markets

Sixth Circuit Hands Tennessee Win in Kalshi Sports Contracts Dispute

Sixth Circuit hands Tennessee win over Kalshi in sports market fight A federal appeals court lifted Kalshi’s preliminary injunction against Tennessee, ruling its sports-event contracts likely are not “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal commodities law does not block the state from enforcing its gambling laws. The decision deepens an appellate split, with the Sixth and Ninth Circuits against Kalshi and the Third Circuit backing its preemption argument, increasing the odds of a Supreme Court showdown.

September 22, 2026

14:57 Prediction Markets

Kalshi asks CFTC to approve margin trading for select event contracts

Kalshi seeks CFTC approval for margin on select event contracts Kalshi Klear filed with the CFTC on Sept. 22 to introduce margin for selected event contracts, replacing full upfront collateral with a modeled initial-margin system for qualified participants trading through FCMs or as approved self-clearing members. The proposal excludes sports markets and would let Kalshi approve margin eligibility by product and by YES or NO side, with contracts returning to full collateralization near resolution.

September 19, 2026

10:40 Prediction Markets

South Korean Police Trace Polymarket Traders, Refer 18 in Gambling Case

South Korean police book 26 Polymarket users after tracing on-chain trades South Korean police spent five months identifying Polymarket traders through public blockchain records and booked 26 people on suspicion of illegal gambling, even though the platform was still accessible in Korea at the time. As of Sept. 15, 18 had been referred to prosecutors, with combined stakes of $12.7 million, as authorities argue prediction market trades can qualify as gambling under Article 246.

September 18, 2026

04:28 Prediction Markets

South Korea Refers 18 Polymarket Users to Prosecutors in First Gambling Test Case

South Korea refers 18 Polymarket users for gambling charges South Korea’s Gangwon Provincial Police Agency has referred 18 Polymarket users to prosecutors after identifying 26 bettors who placed a combined 17.6 billion won ($12.7 million) on the prediction market, including one stake of about 5.7 billion won ($4.1 million). Police traced public blockchain records to identify users and argue Polymarket’s yes-or-no contracts are illegal gambling under Article 246, setting up the country’s first court test of whether prediction-market trading is gambling or a form of derivatives trading.

September 17, 2026

04:11 Prediction Markets

South Korea Books 26 Polymarket Users in 17.6 Billion Won Gambling Probe

South Korea books 26 Polymarket users in alleged illegal gambling probe South Korean police booked 26 Polymarket users over 17.6 billion won ($12.7 million) in alleged illegal bets, with 18 cases referred to prosecutors by Sept. 15. Investigators said public blockchain data let them identify users despite the platform lacking a real-name customer list, and argued Polymarket wagers can fall under Article 246 of the Criminal Act, which carries fines or up to three years in prison for habitual gambling.

September 15, 2026

08:26 Prediction Markets

Kalshi Captures 96% of Non-Sports Prediction Volume as Weekly Total Reaches $10 Billion

Kalshi takes 96% of non-sports prediction market volume Weekly non-sports trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket hit a record $10 billion last week, Artemis data shows, with Kalshi accounting for $9.6 billion and Polymarket $344.2 million. That was the sixth straight record week and a sharp shift from near parity in early June, as Kalshi’s contracts gained distribution through Robinhood, Coinbase, Webull and Moomoo.

September 11, 2026

09:56 Prediction Markets

New York’s Case Against Kalshi Deepens as CFTC Argues Federal Law Overrides State Rules

New York-Kalshi fight escalates as CFTC backs federal preemption New York has sued prediction market Kalshi for illegal gambling, while the CFTC stepped in with an aggressive court letter arguing federal law overrides state gambling rules and warning against fines that could cripple the company. The clash sharpened after 44 state attorneys general urged the CFTC to stay out of gambling regulation, underscoring that no final binding ruling has yet settled where federal market oversight ends and state gambling law begins.

September 7, 2026

11:11 Prediction Markets

FCA reviews retail ban on financial prediction markets in the UK

FCA weighs easing UK retail ban on prediction markets The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority is considering loosening its ban on retail access to financial prediction markets, The Times reported, after holding talks with trading platforms as more Britons use overseas venues such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The FCA still publicly backs the ban, which treats these contracts as binary options, and any broader UK access would still require FCA approval for financial event contracts plus a Gambling Commission license for sports or political markets.

September 6, 2026

18:41 Prediction Markets

New Jersey Pushes Kalshi Prediction Markets Fight Toward U.S. Supreme Court

New Jersey asks Supreme Court to hear Kalshi prediction markets case New Jersey has petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to review its case against Kalshi, teeing up a potential ruling on whether sports-related prediction market contracts are state-regulated gambling products or CFTC-regulated swaps under Dodd-Frank. The petition follows a circuit split, and the Court is expected to decide within about 90 days whether to take the case; Kalshi has 30 days to respond once the petition is docketed.

September 4, 2026

07:59 Prediction Markets

Kalshi launches five new crypto perpetuals for eligible U.S. traders

Kalshi adds BNB, ADA, WLD, AAVE and VVV perpetuals for U.S. traders Kalshi on Sept. 4 launched U.S. dollar-margined perpetual contracts tied to BNB, Cardano, Worldcoin, Aave and Venice Token for eligible U.S. traders, expanding its regulated crypto derivatives lineup. The contracts have no expiration, allow long or short positions, and offer product-specific leverage of up to about 4.5x on BNB and 1.9x on VVV, bringing Kalshi’s listings to Bitcoin and 17 altcoin perpetuals.

September 3, 2026

21:11 Prediction Markets

Polymarket Opens Perpetual Futures Trading on International Platform With 20x Leverage

Polymarket opens perpetual futures trading on international platform Polymarket on Thursday opened perpetual futures trading to the public, adding no-expiry leveraged contracts on assets including Tesla, Bitcoin and gold to its international site, where Americans are barred. The launch puts the event-markets platform into direct competition with Hyperliquid and offshore derivatives venues, with up to 20x leverage and 67 live markets at launch.

September 2, 2026

21:27 Prediction Markets

New Jersey asks Supreme Court to settle state-federal fight over prediction markets

New Jersey asks Supreme Court to weigh state control of prediction markets New Jersey on Wednesday asked the US Supreme Court to let states treat prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket as gambling, challenging a Third Circuit ruling that gave the CFTC exclusive oversight. The petition lands days after the Ninth Circuit backed Nevada’s authority to regulate the products as sports betting, creating a split that could decide whether the sector answers to state gaming regulators or one federal agency.

August 31, 2026

23:10 Prediction Markets

Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $1 Billion Round at $21 Billion Valuation

Polymarket seeks $1B round at $21B valuation Polymarket is seeking $1 billion in new funding in a round led by 1789 Capital that would value the prediction-market platform at $21 billion post-money, Bloomberg reported Aug. 31. 1789 plans to invest about $300 million. The raise comes as Polymarket looks to expand its institutional investor base and seeks US approval to offer margin trading.

August 28, 2026

21:42 Prediction Markets

Ninth Circuit Says Nevada Can Police Kalshi’s Sports Event Contracts

Ninth Circuit backs Nevada oversight of Kalshi sports contracts A U.S. appeals court in the Ninth Circuit unanimously ruled that Nevada regulators can oversee Kalshi’s sports event contracts, rejecting Kalshi’s argument that CFTC regulation alone controls its federally licensed exchange. The decision deepens a split with an earlier federal ruling involving New Jersey, raising the chance the U.S. Supreme Court may ultimately decide whether state gambling laws apply to prediction markets.

August 27, 2026

22:58 Prediction Markets

Polymarket Withdraws NFL Participation Contracts After CFTC Filing, While Crypto Bets Advance

Polymarket withdraws NFL player participation contracts after CFTC filing Polymarket’s US platform pulled two NFL Player Participation Contracts on Aug. 26, just a day after certifying them with the CFTC and a day before the proposed Aug. 27 listing date. The withdrawal came as the exchange also certified bitcoin, ether, and solana price contracts as swaps in the binary option subcategory. No public reason was given, and other sports filings from Aug. 25 remain certified, including NFL Starter Designation contracts.

August 15, 2026

11:10 Prediction Markets

Washington judge orders Kalshi to block most event contracts in the state

Washington judge orders Kalshi to geofence most event contracts in the state A Washington judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering event contracts tied to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science, and “mentions” to people in the state, rejecting the platform’s argument that federal commodities law overrides Washington gambling law. Kalshi must add initial IP and residency geofencing by Aug. 19 and a GeoComply multi-source system by Sept. 2; commodities, climate, economics and finance contracts are exempt.

August 11, 2026

21:45 Prediction Markets

CFTC tells Kalshi to keep New York prediction markets open during state court fight

CFTC orders Kalshi to keep New York markets open amid state lawsuit The CFTC said Kalshi can continue operating its prediction markets in New York despite a lawsuit filed by Attorney General Letitia James at the end of July seeking to shut the platform. Using emergency authority, the agency said federal law governs prediction markets as swaps and argued New York’s gaming laws do not apply to interstate financial exchanges; court rulings on moving the case to federal court are still pending.

August 7, 2026

15:15 Prediction Markets

Polymarket shifts short-term crypto markets to TWAP after settlement manipulation concerns

Polymarket switches short-dated crypto markets to TWAP settlement Polymarket has replaced single-price settlement snapshots with time-weighted average prices for short-dated crypto contracts after trader complaints and a study linked settlement windows to likely manipulation. The platform said five-minute markets will use a 30-second average and 15-minute and four-hour markets a 60-second average via Chainlink Data Streams; researchers said 821 accounts made $8.2 million in likely manipulated windows.

July 30, 2026

21:23 Prediction Markets

Chainalysis says World Cup drove $20B in blockchain prediction market volume

World Cup drove $20B in blockchain prediction markets, Chainalysis says Chainalysis said the World Cup generated $20 billion in blockchain-based prediction market volume and $24 million in FIFA Collect NFT trading, with more than 400,000 wallets placing bets. During the five-week tournament, World Cup markets made up about 63% of all prediction market activity, while fewer than 1% of participating wallets were tied to illicit actors.

07:46 Prediction Markets

Polymarket removes Korean support and reduces Korea market visibility in South Korea

Polymarket drops Korean support and hides Korea markets in South Korea Polymarket has removed Korean from its language menu and stopped prominently showing Korea-focused prediction markets to users in South Korea, while keeping the contracts available globally. The changes come as South Korean regulators review whether the platform amounts to gambling and police investigate local users on gambling allegations; the Korea Communications Standards Commission has not set a timetable for any action, and Polymarket has not explained the move.

July 27, 2026

08:02 Prediction Markets

CFTC renews warning over template event-contract filings by prediction markets

CFTC issues fresh warning on prediction market contract filings The CFTC has again told prediction-market exchanges not to use broad, template-style self-certifications for event contracts, saying each filing must include product-specific terms, settlement methods, data sources and compliance analysis. The July 24 advisory, which stops short of changing the self-certification route or naming any platform, comes just before the July 27 deadline for comments on proposed event-contract rules.

July 21, 2026

06:15 Prediction Markets

Hyperliquid rolls out HIP-4 to open prediction market creation beyond validators

Hyperliquid unveils HIP-4 for permissionless prediction markets Hyperliquid said on July 20 that its HIP-4 upgrade will let qualified deployers launch outcome-based prediction markets using validator-approved on-chain templates, ending validator-only deployment. Deployers must stake 500,000 HYPE for six months, can be slashed for failed settlement or quitting, and start with a 100-outcome limit; settlement quotes will use AQAv2 only. HYPE traded around $60, down about 1% on the day.

04:46 Prediction Markets

Polymarket sends nearly 100 wallets to law enforcement over suspicious trading activity

Polymarket refers nearly 100 wallets to law enforcement Polymarket has sent nearly 100 crypto wallets to law enforcement as it steps up monitoring for possible insider trading, Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar said. A Bloomberg analysis flagged about $200 million in first-half 2026 trades with patterns associated with informed activity, mostly in geopolitical markets. The referrals do not prove wrongdoing or mean charges will follow, but recent U.S. cases tied to Venezuela and Google-linked wagers have intensified scrutiny.

July 19, 2026

22:15 Prediction Markets

France orders ISP block on Polymarket ahead of World Cup final

France orders ISPs to block Polymarket before World Cup final France’s gambling regulator ANJ ordered internet providers on July 16 to block access to Polymarket, calling the platform an illegal gambling service and warning of potential losses and market manipulation. The move comes ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup final between Spain and Argentina, as Polymarket’s tournament-winner market has logged more than $4 billion in cumulative volume; the block stays in place until the platform complies with local rules.

July 17, 2026

21:00 Prediction Markets

Augur relaunches with Lituus dispute layer and live REP migration test

Augur relaunches with Lituus dispute-resolution layer and REP migration test The Lituus Foundation has relaunched Augur with a proposed decentralized settlement layer for disputed prediction-market outcomes, plus a live two-month “Moon Fork” test that requires REP holders to migrate tokens to the version they support. The foundation says the system is designed to resolve contested markets without relying on a company, committee, multisig or governance council, as scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies.

07:45 Prediction Markets

Kalshi Crypto Contract Volume Reaches Record $217.98 Million in a Single Day

Kalshi crypto contracts hit record $217.98M daily volume Kalshi’s crypto event contracts posted a record $217.98 million in daily volume on July 15, up from about $5 million on Jan. 1, a roughly 44x increase in seven months, Artemis data shows. The surge comes even as BTC is down about 30% year to date, with Kalshi now controlling roughly 84% of crypto-prediction volume after taking share from Polymarket.

July 14, 2026

21:46 Prediction Markets

CFTC tells Kalshi not to obey Michigan order to cancel completed user trades

CFTC tells Kalshi to ignore Michigan order to cancel trades The CFTC has ordered prediction-market platform Kalshi not to comply with a Michigan court order requiring it to cancel and refund trades by Michigan users, saying unwinding executed contracts could disrupt markets and undermine contractual certainty. The agency said it will not allow states or courts to pressure registered entities into violating the Commodity Exchange Act, calling such cancellations unprecedented and a risk to market confidence.

06:46 Prediction Markets

Gibraltar Brings In First Dedicated Rulebook for Prediction Markets

Gibraltar launches first dedicated prediction market regime Gibraltar’s Prediction Market Regulations 2026 took effect on July 13, making the territory the first jurisdiction to create a purpose-built rulebook for prediction markets instead of treating them under general gambling law. All event contracts must be approved by the Gambling Authority, and two operators — ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire’s Wire Markets — will fall under the new regime, setting Gibraltar apart as European regulators move to tighten scrutiny of the sector.