Gibraltar Brings In First Dedicated Rulebook for Prediction Markets

A separate framework for event contracts

The regulations were introduced by Gibraltar’s Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry as a 24-page instrument built around an activity-based and risk-based approach. Rather than treating prediction markets under general gambling law, the territory has created a dedicated set of standards for the sector.

Under the regime, every event contract must be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority. Contracts must be clearly defined, capable of objective settlement, not easily open to manipulation, and aligned with the framework’s regulatory objectives. An independent supervisory panel will oversee the system, while operators are required to maintain their own controls to prevent market abuse.

The stated emphasis is on effective supervision and on standards covering market integrity, transparency, participant protection and financial crime prevention.

First operators under the regime

Two operators are set to be regulated under the new framework. One is ADI Predictstreet, which was licensed in Gibraltar on March 26 as a betting intermediary under the territory’s previous 2005 gambling law. The platform is the official prediction-market partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026 and is built on the ADI Chain blockchain run by Abu Dhabi’s ADI Foundation.

The second is Wire Markets, the platform of California-based WagerWire. According to the source report, Wire Markets received approval in principle in June and is targeting a launch around the start of the international club football season in August.

The March licensing of ADI Predictstreet was separate from the latest regulatory change. That earlier step authorized a single operator under existing law, while the July framework establishes a sector-specific regime for prediction markets as a whole.

Gibraltar diverges from Europe

Gibraltar’s move comes as other European authorities have been taking a more restrictive stance toward event-contract platforms. Earlier in July, the European Securities and Markets Authority said firms should note that event contracts meeting the definition of financial instruments are already prohibited for retail sale under existing binary-options rules.

In June, nine national regulators issued a joint statement warning operators about consumer-protection risks. The source article also notes that the Netherlands had already ordered Polymarket to stop serving its market.

This contrast has sharpened Gibraltar’s position as an outlier in the region: instead of folding prediction markets into existing prohibitions or broad gambling rules, it has opted for a dedicated licensing and oversight model.

Economic backdrop and open questions

The source report says gambling-related services account for roughly a quarter of Gibraltar’s GDP. It also says the territory faces pressure as the United Kingdom raises its Remote Gaming Duty, making diversification into a fast-growing adjacent sector potentially attractive for operators based there.

At the same time, prediction-market activity has expanded quickly. The report cites combined monthly trading volume across leading regulated platforms at $44.8 billion in June. Whether Gibraltar’s first-mover approach becomes a model for other jurisdictions or remains an exception is still unclear.