JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its annual long-term capital market assumptions report for the first time, marking a notable addition to one of Wall Street’s standard long-range forecasting exercises.

The firm projects Bitcoin will grow 10% a year over the next decade. In the same outlook, it assigns the asset a 20.9% arithmetic return and 55% annualized volatility, while stressing that Bitcoin is still maturing and does not yet qualify, in its view, as a portfolio diversifier.

Bitcoin enters the firm’s long-term assumptions

The new forecast puts Bitcoin alongside more established asset classes in JPMorgan Asset Management’s 10-year outlook. Over the same period, the firm expects US large-cap equities to return 7.50% per year, US small-cap stocks to rise 7.70%, and gold to gain 5.50% annually.

That comparison places Bitcoin at the top of the growth assumptions cited in the report, but with a much higher level of expected volatility than traditional market benchmarks. The inclusion itself is significant because the firm had not previously incorporated Bitcoin into this annual set of long-term market assumptions.

Why the firm says the case is not straightforward

JPMorgan Asset Management said Bitcoin’s role in portfolios remains difficult to model. According to the firm, it does not currently make the case for BTC as a diversifier because its correlations with other assets have been unstable.

The report describes Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing. It also says BTC has mostly traded like a high-beta risk asset that tracks growth in global money supply, even though it is at times treated as a form of “digital gold.”

The firm added that forecasting Bitcoin presents a further challenge because its fundamentals are not based on cash flows, and because its economics may depend as much on adoption, regulation and liquidity as on technology.

Industry reaction focused on the symbolism

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan highlighted the move on X, framing the report as another sign of Bitcoin’s growing acceptance in institutional finance.

Hougan wrote that JPMorgan had added Bitcoin to its long-term capital market assumptions paper and predicted it would be the best-performing asset of the next decade. He also acknowledged the many caveats attached to the forecast, while saying it was still remarkable to see the asset included at all.

What the report does and does not say

The outlook gives Bitcoin a place in a major asset manager’s forward-looking framework, but it does not amount to an unqualified endorsement. JPMorgan Asset Management explicitly says the asset is still maturing, and its comments focus on uncertainty as much as return potential.

For now, the clearest confirmed takeaway is that Bitcoin has moved into the firm’s formal 10-year forecasting model. At the same time, JPMorgan’s own language indicates that questions around correlation behavior, valuation methods, adoption, regulation and liquidity remain central to how it assesses the asset.

Source: dailyhodl.com